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INRAT Instrument Rating · Question

When interpreting a TAF for CYYZ, the forecast 'PROB30 1820 TX10Z 18005KT 5SM -RA OVC008' indicates what within the specified time period?

'PROB30' indicates a 30% probability, and 'TX10Z' implies a temporary forecast for the duration of the 10 hour period starting at 1820Z, but in the context of T

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Question: When interpreting a TAF for CYYZ, the forecast 'PROB30 1820 TX10Z 18005KT 5SM -RA OVC008' indicates what within the specified time period?

Answer options:

  • A 30% probability of rain with ceilings of 800 feet AGL and visibility 5 statute miles, prevailing for one hour. ✅ A 30% probability of rain with ceilings of 800 feet AGL and visibility 5 statute miles, lasting for two hours.
  • A 30% probability of rain with overcast at 800 feet AGL and visibility 5 statute miles, occurring at 1800 UTC.
  • A 30% probability of a temporary conditions including rain, overcast at 800 feet AGL, and visibility 5 statute miles.

Correct answer: A 30% probability of rain with ceilings of 800 feet AGL and visibility 5 statute miles, lasting for two hours.

Explanation: 'PROB30' indicates a 30% probability, and 'TX10Z' implies a temporary forecast for the duration of the 10 hour period starting at 1820Z, but in the context of TAF format, it represents a period within the validity, not a specific time. In this format, 'PROB' forecasts apply for a maximum duration of two hours.

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